2019

Thirdrock May Macro Outlook
This month, we consider the global picture for external balances. Such imbalances were a concern in the run-up to 2008, but they did not turn out to be the distortion that ultimately gave rise to global the crisis. While imbalances are narrower today, certain economies—Germany in particular—are carrying large balances that could be disruptive if unwound quickly. We also look at the short and long-run prospect for Japan, and while we remain sanguine for the short run, we are revising down some of our previous optimism over longer-run prospects. Finally, we also suggest that EM Indonesia’s recent performance have been reasonably solid, although not entirely overlooked. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock April Macro Outlook
This month, we explore liquidity matters: in particular, we show that central banks are no longer squeezing monetary policy (or reversing it outright), and this has resulted in a possible reversal in tightening financial conditions. We also look at Brexit, from the perspective of forex, and conclude that the prospects for the pound remain in caveat emptor territory, although opportunities could exist for a patient investor by picking up UK assets in the event of a hard Brexit. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock March Macro Outlook
Although we discussed global inflation patterns fairly recently, the incoming data have moved materially enough to warrant another look; we conclude that price pressures in both developed (DM) and emerging (EM) markets have been relieved sufficiently that a takeoff this year is no longer in the offing. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock February Macro Outlook
As we discuss in this month’s outlook, global macroeconomic indicators paint a very different picture from that which prevailed at the start of 2018, and with fragile fundamentals, we continue to advise appropriate caution on risk assets. That said, markets that were disfavoured through much of 2018, such as Brazil, now appear to be attractive again, both from an asset front as well as from an economic perspective. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock January Macro Outlook
Markets renewed their downward pounding in December, albeit with a slight reprieve in the final days of 2018. The heightened volatility leads us to explore tail risks in greater detail. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

2018

Thirdrock December Macro Outlook
This month, we review financial market developments over the past month or so, with an eye to cross-asset relationships. View More - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock November Macro Outlook
This month, we explore to pressing issue of total debt; not just from public borrowers—beloved among those with an eye on emerging market (EM) sovereign debt—but also the stock of private (in particular, household and corporate) debt. View More - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock October Macro Outlook
This month, developments on the global trade front force us to return to the theme. Rather than focus on either economic implications or political-economy considerations in the bilateral China-U.S. relationship. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock September Macro Outlook
This month, we take a step back and look at the sustainability of capital flows—which has been in the news lately as emerging markets (EMs) worldwide are experiencing currency pressure—from the perspective of imbalances at the global level, courtesy of recent evaluations issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock August Macro Outlook
As the Northern hemisphere presses on into the quiet calm of summer, we review the macro picture of the major developed markets (DMs) over the first half. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock July Macro Outlook
Earlier this year, we raised the possibility that the prevailing consensus narrative of a “synchronised global expansion” was beginning to show signs of fraying. Nowhere is this more evident than in emerging markets (EMs), where financial outflows from the asset class are now becoming larger and more persistent. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock June Macro Outlook
Markets calmed noticeably over the past month, which allows us to take a step back and dive a little deeper into one of the fundamental drivers behind several macro themes. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock May Macro Outlook
Financial markets have remained volatile over the past month, which we consider a “new normal” state of affairs, as the global economy—especially developed markets (DMs)—enters its late-cycle stage. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock April Macro Outlook
Even by the standards of uncertain financial markets, February was a roller-coaster ride, and after a brief pause for breath, markets again whipsawed in March. - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

2017

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q1 2017
The Rains of Castamere - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

2016

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q4 2016
Between a Rock and a Hard PlaceView More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q3 2016
Winter is ComingView More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q2 2016
Running to Stand Still – View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q1 2016
Too Little, Too LateView More PNG pdf_icon_small

2015
Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q4 2015
Down the Rabbit Hole We Go - View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q3 2015
Risk Flares – Mind the Gap! View More PNG pdf_icon_small

Thirdrock Quarterly Outlook – Q2 2015
Guarded Pessimism with Cautious Optimism View MorePNG pdf_icon_small

 

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